Performance Prediction Systems
Create a challenge that would drive development of AI systems that monitor human physical and mental states, predict when performance is declining or risks are rising, and provide real-time guidance to improve health, safety, and productivity in high-stakes environments like construction sites, sports fields, spacecraft, and lunar habitats. Focus on defining the problem, not solving it. Your topic will guide student innovation for the next 18 months.
Focus on defining the problem, not solving it. The solution topic you create will be the focus of student innovation efforts in the next 18 months.
The Ultimate Destination:
Advancing Human Presence Beyond Earth
Understanding why this matters helps you see the bigger picture and focus your topic on challenges that align with NASA’s mission.
NASA's Artemis program aims to establish a permanent human presence on the Moon by 2040 and enable crewed Mars missions. On Mars, astronauts will spend 500+ days on the surface with communication delays up to 20 minutes, making real-time medical support from Earth impossible. They'll face constant stress from radiation, altered gravity, isolation, poor nutrition, and sleep problems while handling complex operations and emergencies where mistakes can be fatal.
Current space monitoring falls short. Astronauts on the International Space Station experience fatigue, stress, and physical decline, but monitoring relies on scheduled checkups and self-reports that miss early warning signs. When an astronaut's thinking deteriorates from sleep loss during a critical spacewalk, or heat stress threatens consciousness, or poor nutrition creates energy deficits, or fatigue causes errors, the consequences can be catastrophic.
NASA needs systems that continuously monitor cognitive load, fatigue, heat stress, heart function, metabolism, nutrition, stress markers, and performance capacity, then predict when someone is approaching dangerous limits and provide clear guidance without constant expert oversight. This technology must work autonomously for years in extreme conditions while requiring minimal crew effort.
By 2040, NASA envisions up to 144 people living and working on the Moon. These populations will need monitoring systems that track real-time physical and mental state across diverse activities, predict injury or error risk, detect early signs of heat stress or fatigue before failures occur, guide personalized work schedules and nutrition, and integrate with habitat systems.
Developing these systems now in Earth environments that share challenges with space operations creates the foundation for NASA's deep space goals while addressing critical safety needs on Earth.
The Flight Plan:
Core Requirements for Mission Success
These six requirements highlight what your solution topic should address.
Multi-Parameter Continuous Monitoring
Track multiple indicators simultaneously (heart rate, core temperature, hydration, glucose, cognitive load, fatigue, stress) through wearable sensors that work across different activities and environments without interfering with work.
Context-Aware Interpretation and Actionable Guidance
Translate complex data into clear recommendations that non-experts can understand and act on immediately (rest breaks, hydration, nutrition, workload changes), adapted to specific situations and individual baselines.
Individual Baseline Learning and Personalization
Build systems that learn individual performance patterns over time, accounting for person-to-person differences in stress response and recovery, while adapting predictions to individual patterns rather than population averages.
Predictive Risk Assessment and Early Warning
Use AI to analyze data streams and predict performance problems, injury risk, heat stress, or cognitive failures minutes to hours before they happen, enabling prevention instead of reaction.
Minimal User Burden and Operational Integration
Design systems that require minimal attention, with comfortable sensors for 12+ hour wear, automatic data collection, and seamless integration into existing workflows.
Robust Operation in Harsh Environments
Function reliably across extreme conditions (arctic cold to desert heat, high humidity, dust, limited connectivity, variable power) while maintaining accuracy.
Multi-Parameter Continuous Monitoring
Track multiple indicators simultaneously (heart rate, core temperature, hydration, glucose, cognitive load, fatigue, stress) through wearable sensors that work across different activities and environments without interfering with work.
Predictive Risk Assessment and Early Warning
Use AI to analyze data streams and predict performance problems, injury risk, heat stress, or cognitive failures minutes to hours before they happen, enabling prevention instead of reaction.
Context-Aware Interpretation and Actionable Guidance
Translate complex data into clear recommendations that non-experts can understand and act on immediately (rest breaks, hydration, nutrition, workload changes), adapted to specific situations and individual baselines.
Minimal User Burden and Operational Integration
Design systems that require minimal attention, with comfortable sensors for 12+ hour wear, automatic data collection, and seamless integration into existing workflows.
Individual Baseline Learning and Personalization
Build systems that learn individual performance patterns over time, accounting for person-to-person differences in stress response and recovery, while adapting predictions to individual patterns rather than population averages.
Robust Operation in Harsh Environments
Function reliably across extreme conditions (arctic cold to desert heat, high humidity, dust, limited connectivity, variable power) while maintaining accuracy.
Ground-Level Relevance:
Driving Change for Earth, First
How does your topic create meaningful change? The most compelling solution topics bridge the needs of Earth and the demands of space, offering scalable, impactful answers to humanity's biggest challenges. Before diving into feasibility, consider how your topic can shape the world today while paving the way for tomorrow.
Can it scale?
- Could this topic’s impact extend across different Earth regions or populations?
- Does it address universal needs or challenges that apply broadly?
Does it solve a major problem?
- Does your topic address a significant barrier to space exploration or human survival?
- Can it simultaneously solve pressing challenges on Earth, like resource scarcity or climate change?
Can it adapt?
- Is your topic flexible enough to work in diverse environments on Earth and eventually on Mars?
- Could it be modified or enhanced as technology evolves?
Will it inspire future work?
- Does your topic create a foundation for further innovation?
- Could it lead to spinoff technologies or applications?
The Feasibility Factor:
Turning Ideas Into Action
Is your topic realistic? Even the most transformative ideas need to be grounded in feasibility. This is about asking the practical questions. Great solution topics are ambitious but achievable within a defined scope.
Can measurable progress be made within 18 months?
Does it rely on existing tools and technology, or those likely available by 2027?
Is your topic specific, focused, and actionable?
Is it practical within budget, manpower, and material constraints?
Can it be scaled for use across regions or contexts?
Does it address a real-world problem with the potential for meaningful impact?
Potential markets
1. Construction and Workplace Safety
The global construction industry exceeded $10 trillion in 2023. Workplace safety technology is valued at $7.2 billion growing to $14.8 billion by 2030. Heat-related illnesses cause 30-50 construction worker deaths annually in the US. Fatigue contributes to 20-30% of construction accidents. The industry loses $11.5 billion annually in the US to workplace injuries.
Workers wear multi-sensor systems in safety vests or hard hats monitoring core temperature, heart rate, hydration, and activity. AI analyzes data against personal baselines to predict heat stress 20-45 minutes before dangerous events, identify fatigue increasing fall risk, and detect impairment from strain. Supervisors receive alerts directing them to specific workers needing intervention.
Companies report 40-60% reduction in heat-related incidents and 25-35% decrease in overall injury rates, with ROI within 6-12 months.
- NASA Link: Astronaut spacewalks face identical challenges: physically demanding work in extreme thermal environments, wearing restrictive protective equipment, performing complex operations where errors have severe consequences.
2. Professional Athletics
The global sports technology market reached $31.1 billion in 2023, projected to grow to $62.9 billion by 2030. Professional teams spend $1-5 million annually per team on performance monitoring.
Athletes wear continuous monitoring combining heart rate variability, sleep tracking, movement analysis, and glucose monitoring. AI processes these streams to identify patterns preceding injuries (typically 7-14 days before), predict optimal training loads, forecast performance capacity, and generate personalized nutrition recommendations.
Teams report 25-40% reduction in non-contact injuries and 10-15% improvement in athlete availability.
- NASA Link: Astronaut training parallels elite athletics: individuals at physical and cognitive limits, where cumulative stress requires personalized optimization.
3. Emergency Response
The global emergency medical services market reached $27.3 billion in 2023. In the US, 1.1 million firefighters face work with elevated injury rates. Heat stress causes 40-50% of firefighter line-of-duty deaths from cardiac events.
Firefighters wear ruggedized monitoring tracking core temperature, heart rate, respiratory rate, and location. Incident commanders receive real-time status displays showing responder risk scores and predicted time before intervention required.
Fire departments report 30-50% reduction in heat-related injuries and decreased compensation costs averaging $200,000-500,000 annually per department.
- NASA Link: Astronaut emergency response mirrors terrestrial operations: high-stress decision-making, physically demanding work in protective equipment, extreme conditions, and limited external support.
4. Military Operations
The global military wearables market reached $5.8 billion in 2023, projected to grow to $12.9 billion by 2030. Performance degradation from fatigue or heat stress impairs decision-making and reduces combat effectiveness.
Service members wear military-grade monitoring tracking core temperature, heart rate variability, hydration, and fatigue. Commanders receive squad status dashboards showing readiness scores and mission planning recommendations.
- NASA Link: Military and space operations share requirements for sustaining performance during extended missions in hostile environments without external support.
5. Healthcare and Rehabilitation
The global remote patient monitoring market reached $53.6 billion in 2023, projected to grow to $302.4 billion by 2032. Continuous monitoring enables early detection of health deterioration.
Patients wear validated systems tracking condition-specific parameters. AI predicts events like heart failure decompensation 5-10 days before emergency visits, enabling proactive intervention. Programs reduce hospital readmissions by 30-50%, saving $10,000-20,000 per prevented admission.
- NASA Link: Space medicine faces limited medical care access and need for early health deterioration detection before emergencies develop.
6. Aging and Fall Prevention
The elderly care technology market reached $8.1 billion in 2023, projected to grow to $18.9 billion by 2030. Falls cause 32 million injuries annually worldwide. Fall-related medical costs exceed $50 billion annually in the US.
Older adults wear monitoring tracking gait patterns, balance metrics, and activity levels. AI identifies fall risk indicators like decreased gait speed or increased stride variability. Systems alert caregivers when significant risk elevations occur.
Preventing 10-20% of serious falls would save billions in medical costs while dramatically improving quality of life.
- NASA Link: Astronauts on long missions experience bone loss and muscle weakness from microgravity, creating elevated fall risk upon return to gravity.